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Conflict Burkina Faso · Mali · Niger

Burkina Faso and Sahel insurgency

JNIM and Islamic State Sahel keep up frequent attacks across Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger, though AFP reports Burkina has had no large-scale assault since late June. The military governments, which turned to Russia for security help, report gains that cannot be independently verified.

Confidence: medium. Rights-group investigations, UNHCR displacement data and the broad trend in ACLED counts are well documented. Casualty and battlefield claims by the armies and by JNIM or IS Sahel are rarely independently verified, and press restrictions in all three countries limit reporting. · Updated 11 Nov 2026, 2pm ET

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Why it matters: UNHCR says nearly 4 million people are uprooted across Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger, including 818,000 refugees and asylum seekers, and hundreds of thousands have fled to coastal states such as Benin, Ivory Coast, Ghana and Togo. source

What's happening

JNIM, an al-Qaeda affiliate formed in 2017 from Sahel factions, and the rival Islamic State Sahel Province are fighting the military governments of Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger, which took power in coups, left ECOWAS, broke with France and turned toward Russia. In Burkina Faso, Human Rights Watch counted at least 1,837 civilians killed between January 2023 and August 2025, 1,255 of them by the army and allied VDP militia and 582 by JNIM. UNHCR says nearly 4 million people are displaced across the three countries. JNIM has used blockades, including one that choked fuel supplies to Mali's capital, Bamako, and the two jihadist groups also fight each other: IS Sahel claimed in October to have killed more than 400 JNIM fighters in Burkina's Oudalan province, a toll not independently confirmed. Burkina's government says it controls about 74.5% of its territory, which cannot be verified, and in October restored the death penalty for terrorism. Attacks have spread into Benin and Togo.

What changed recently

Key figures

almost 500,000 (up from 300,000+ at end-2025)Burkinabe refugees and asylum seekers in neighbouring countries in 2026UNHCR · 2026-10-09 · source
125 attacks, 188 civilians killedAttacks attributed to JNIM in Burkina Faso, Jan-Aug 2026, and civilians killedACLED, cited by Human Rights Watch · 2026-11-04 · source
more than 320 battles, about 2,200 deathsBattles between JNIM and IS Sahel, 2019 to Sept 2026ACLED analyst Heni Nsaibia · 2026-10-16 · source

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Sources