{
  "id": "sahel-insurgency",
  "title": "Burkina Faso and Sahel insurgency",
  "category": "war",
  "countries": [
    {
      "iso3": "BFA",
      "name": "Burkina Faso"
    },
    {
      "iso3": "MLI",
      "name": "Mali"
    },
    {
      "iso3": "NER",
      "name": "Niger"
    }
  ],
  "status": "JNIM and Islamic State Sahel keep up frequent attacks across Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger, though AFP reports Burkina has had no large-scale assault since late June. The military governments, which turned to Russia for security help, report gains that cannot be independently verified.",
  "summary": [
    "JNIM, an al-Qaeda affiliate formed in 2017 from Sahel factions, and the rival Islamic State Sahel Province are fighting the military governments of Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger, which took power in coups, left ECOWAS, broke with France and turned toward Russia. In Burkina Faso, Human Rights Watch counted at least 1,837 civilians killed between January 2023 and August 2025, 1,255 of them by the army and allied VDP militia and 582 by JNIM. UNHCR says nearly 4 million people are displaced across the three countries. JNIM has used blockades, including one that choked fuel supplies to Mali's capital, Bamako, and the two jihadist groups also fight each other: IS Sahel claimed in October to have killed more than 400 JNIM fighters in Burkina's Oudalan province, a toll not independently confirmed. Burkina's government says it controls about 74.5% of its territory, which cannot be verified, and in October restored the death penalty for terrorism. Attacks have spread into Benin and Togo."
  ],
  "why_it_matters": {
    "text": "UNHCR says nearly 4 million people are uprooted across Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger, including 818,000 refugees and asylum seekers, and hundreds of thousands have fled to coastal states such as Benin, Ivory Coast, Ghana and Togo.",
    "source_url": "https://arabnews.com/world/un-says-four-million-displaced-in-central-sahel-3005503"
  },
  "changed_recently": [
    {
      "text": "Burkina Faso's state news agency said special forces killed Saïdou Diallo, described as a JNIM deputy base commander, in Sourou province's Konga forest on Oct. 29 (AIB, Sidwaya). On Nov. 4 Human Rights Watch said JNIM killed at least 27 civilians in two September attacks in Yatenga, 24 of them at the Soubo gold-mining site; JNIM has said the dead were pro-army militia (HRW). An AFP analysis said ACLED data show deaths falling since June while attacks stay frequent (AFP, Mondafrique). Mali's Assimi Goïta visited Niamey and Ouagadougou on Nov. 5 after the Moscow Russia-Africa summit, reportedly carrying a message from Putin (TASS). Niger summoned the EU envoy over Brussels' questions about Algerian troops (AIB).",
      "sources": []
    }
  ],
  "key_numbers": [
    {
      "label": "Burkinabe refugees and asylum seekers in neighbouring countries in 2026",
      "value": "almost 500,000 (up from 300,000+ at end-2025)",
      "who_says": "UNHCR",
      "as_of": "2026-10-09",
      "source_url": "https://fr.allafrica.com/stories/202610100168.html"
    },
    {
      "label": "Attacks attributed to JNIM in Burkina Faso, Jan-Aug 2026, and civilians killed",
      "value": "125 attacks, 188 civilians killed",
      "who_says": "ACLED, cited by Human Rights Watch",
      "as_of": "2026-11-04",
      "source_url": "https://www.hrw.org/news/2026/11/04/burkina-faso-islamist-armed-group-targets-civilians"
    },
    {
      "label": "Battles between JNIM and IS Sahel, 2019 to Sept 2026",
      "value": "more than 320 battles, about 2,200 deaths",
      "who_says": "ACLED analyst Heni Nsaibia",
      "as_of": "2026-10-16",
      "source_url": "https://www.africanews.com/2026/10/16/rival-jnim-and-islamic-state-jihadists-clash-in-intensifying-sahel-turf-war/"
    }
  ],
  "expert_views": [
    {
      "name": "Heni Nsaibia",
      "role": "Analyst, ACLED (Armed Conflict Location and Event Data)",
      "view": "The JNIM-IS Sahel rivalry has spread into western Niger and northwest Nigeria, and if IS Sahel's claimed toll for the Oudalan fighting holds up, it would be the deadliest single battle recorded between the two groups.",
      "outlet": "Africanews",
      "url": "https://www.africanews.com/2026/10/16/rival-jnim-and-islamic-state-jihadists-clash-in-intensifying-sahel-turf-war/",
      "date": "2026-10-16"
    },
    {
      "name": "Ilaria Allegrozzi",
      "role": "Senior Sahel researcher, Human Rights Watch",
      "view": "JNIM's repeated unlawful attacks leave civilians across Burkina Faso at serious risk; the group should stop them and discipline commanders, while the authorities should step up protection and demining and prosecute abuses.",
      "outlet": "Human Rights Watch",
      "url": "https://www.hrw.org/news/2026/11/04/burkina-faso-islamist-armed-group-targets-civilians",
      "date": "2026-11-04"
    }
  ],
  "confidence": {
    "level": "medium",
    "reason": "Rights-group investigations, UNHCR displacement data and the broad trend in ACLED counts are well documented. Casualty and battlefield claims by the armies and by JNIM or IS Sahel are rarely independently verified, and press restrictions in all three countries limit reporting."
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "outlet": "Human Rights Watch",
      "outlet_country": "United States",
      "date": "2026-11-04",
      "url": "https://www.hrw.org/news/2026/11/04/burkina-faso-islamist-armed-group-targets-civilians"
    },
    {
      "outlet": "Mondafrique",
      "outlet_country": "France",
      "date": "2026-11-07",
      "url": "https://mondafrique.com/decryptage/derriere-laccalmie-la-guerre-continue-au-burkina-faso/"
    },
    {
      "outlet": "Sidwaya",
      "outlet_country": "Burkina Faso",
      "date": "2026-11-02",
      "url": "https://www.sidwaya.info/2026/11/02/burkina-larmee-elimine-le-chef-terroriste-saidou-diallo-alias-djabiri-mangan-le-borgne/"
    },
    {
      "outlet": "TASS",
      "outlet_country": "Russia",
      "date": "2026-11-06",
      "url": "https://tass.com/world/2213865"
    },
    {
      "outlet": "Africanews",
      "outlet_country": "France",
      "date": "2026-10-16",
      "url": "https://www.africanews.com/2026/10/16/rival-jnim-and-islamic-state-jihadists-clash-in-intensifying-sahel-turf-war/"
    },
    {
      "outlet": "Al Jazeera",
      "outlet_country": "Qatar",
      "date": "2026-10-19",
      "url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/19/malis-military-and-armed-groups-committing-abuses-against-civilians-hrw"
    },
    {
      "outlet": "Africanews",
      "outlet_country": "France",
      "date": "2026-10-21",
      "url": "https://www.africanews.com/amp/2026/10/21/burkina-faso-reinstates-death-penalty-justice-ministry/"
    },
    {
      "outlet": "France 24",
      "outlet_country": "France",
      "date": "2026-10-26",
      "url": "https://www.france24.com/en/africa/20261026-algeria-to-send-troops-to-niger-in-first-foreign-deployment-in-over-50-years"
    }
  ],
  "updated": "2026-11-11",
  "page": "https://verorbis.com/e/sahel-insurgency/",
  "interactive": "https://verorbis.com/#e-sahel-insurgency",
  "license": {
    "text": "Summaries and curation: CC BY 4.0. Cite \"Verorbis\" and link to https://verorbis.com/e/sahel-insurgency/.",
    "third_party": "Numbers from third parties keep their own licenses and credit lines.",
    "credits": [
      "UCDP Candidate Events Dataset (CC BY 4.0), Uppsala Conflict Data Program",
      "UNHCR Refugee Population Statistics Database (CC BY 4.0)",
      "World Bank World Development Indicators (CC BY 4.0)",
      "V-Dem via Our World in Data (CC BY-SA 4.0)",
      "Harvard Growth Lab, Atlas of Economic Complexity (CC0)",
      "GDELT Project",
      "U.S. Energy Information Administration and Federal Reserve, via FRED",
      "European Central Bank reference rates; US Treasury daily par yield curve; Federal Reserve Bank of New York (EFFR)"
    ]
  }
}