{
  "id": "myanmar-civil-war",
  "title": "Myanmar civil war",
  "category": "war",
  "countries": [
    {
      "iso3": "MMR",
      "name": "Myanmar"
    }
  ],
  "status": "The military-backed government that took office in April is pushing ground offensives and frequent airstrikes, while the Arakan Army holds most of Rakhine and fights near Sittwe. Peace invitations from Naypyitaw have not halted the fighting.",
  "summary": [
    "Myanmar's military ousted Aung San Suu Kyi's elected government in February 2021, and the crackdown on protests grew into a multi-front civil war. The army faces ethnic armed groups such as the Arakan Army, Kachin Independence Army and Karen National Union, plus People's Defence Force units loyal to the opposition National Unity Government. Monitors including ACLED put the death toll at about 100,000. After a phased election in December 2025 and January 2026 that barred major opposition parties, parliament made coup leader Min Aung Hlaing president in April. Since 2025 the army has retaken key roads and towns in Chin, Shan, Mandalay and Kachin areas, helped by China-brokered ceasefires on the northern border, according to Myanmar Now and Al Jazeera, and ACLED says its air campaign has intensified. The Arakan Army reportedly holds 14 of Rakhine's 17 townships. UN figures count over 4 million people displaced, while Malaysia and other neighbours, and the US through direct talks, are re-engaging the new government."
  ],
  "why_it_matters": {
    "text": "More than 700,000 Rohingya fled Myanmar's Rakhine State, mostly to Bangladesh, after a 2017 military crackdown that is now the subject of a genocide case at the International Court of Justice.",
    "source_url": "https://www.aa.com.tr/en/world/world-court-to-rule-nov-19-on-myanmar-genocide-case-over-rohingya/4111070"
  },
  "changed_recently": [
    {
      "text": "State media said the army captured 11 resistance bases on the Mon-Bago border, including a National Unity Government regional command, in a six-day operation; the claim could not be independently checked (AP via The Star). Air strikes on Nov 1 across four Rakhine townships, including a makeshift maternity clinic in Mrauk-U, killed at least 12 people, according to the Arakan Army and an aid worker (Reuters, Anadolu). UNICEF said a strike on a Loikaw school killed three children (UN News). The opposition government said an air attack in Sagaing's Kani township killed 11 on Nov 7 (Myanmar Now). Thailand's armed forces chief summoned Myanmar's military attache after cross-border damage (DVB). The ICJ set Nov 19 for its Rohingya genocide ruling (Anadolu).",
      "sources": []
    }
  ],
  "key_numbers": [
    {
      "label": "Internally displaced people in Myanmar",
      "value": "4,054,900",
      "who_says": "UN in Myanmar, as shown on the UNHCR data portal",
      "as_of": "2026-10-26",
      "source_url": "https://data.unhcr.org/en/country/mmr"
    },
    {
      "label": "Civilians killed by the military since the February 2021 coup",
      "value": "at least 8,384",
      "who_says": "UN Special Rapporteur on Myanmar Kelley Anne Eckels-Currie",
      "as_of": "2026-09-15",
      "source_url": "https://news.un.org/en/story/2026/10/1168705"
    },
    {
      "label": "Rakhine townships held by the Arakan Army",
      "value": "14 of 17",
      "who_says": "DVB reporting",
      "as_of": "2026-10-10",
      "source_url": "https://english.dvb.no/arakan-army-strikes-myanmar-navy-vessels-as-airstrikes-continue-to-devastate-rakhine-state/"
    }
  ],
  "expert_views": [
    {
      "name": "Su Mon",
      "role": "Analyst, Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED)",
      "view": "Says the air campaign grew more intense after Ye Win Oo became commander-in-chief in March 2026, with several jets hitting a single target and repeat strikes on places where people gather, such as markets, schools and hospitals.",
      "outlet": "France 24",
      "url": "https://www.france24.com/en/asia-pacific/20261105-myanmar-civilians-under-fire-from-military-junta",
      "date": "2026-11-05"
    },
    {
      "name": "Kelley Anne Eckels-Currie",
      "role": "UN Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in Myanmar",
      "view": "Says conditions have worsened despite the military's 100-day peace plan, and argues that scam centres, illegal mining and trafficking now help fund the war rather than simply resulting from it.",
      "outlet": "UN News",
      "url": "https://news.un.org/en/story/2026/10/1168705",
      "date": "2026-10-29"
    }
  ],
  "confidence": {
    "level": "medium",
    "reason": "The April 2026 change of government, continuing airstrikes and the broad map of fronts are reported consistently by UN agencies, wire services and regional media. Casualty tolls come from armed groups, aid workers, the opposition government or state media and often cannot be independently checked, and the military's territorial claims are unverified because it restricts journalists' access."
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "outlet": "Anadolu",
      "outlet_country": "Turkey",
      "date": "2026-11-02",
      "url": "https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/myanmar-military-airstrikes-kill-at-least-15-civilians-including-12-in-rakhine-state-report/4108750"
    },
    {
      "outlet": "The Star",
      "outlet_country": "Malaysia",
      "date": "2026-11-10",
      "url": "https://www.thestar.com.my/aseanplus/aseanplus-news/2026/11/10/myanmar-army-seizes-key-resistance-headquarters-and-10-bases-held-by-opposition-state-media"
    },
    {
      "outlet": "France 24",
      "outlet_country": "France",
      "date": "2026-11-05",
      "url": "https://www.france24.com/en/asia-pacific/20261105-myanmar-civilians-under-fire-from-military-junta"
    },
    {
      "outlet": "UN News",
      "outlet_country": "International (UN)",
      "date": "2026-10-29",
      "url": "https://news.un.org/en/story/2026/10/1168705"
    },
    {
      "outlet": "Al Jazeera",
      "outlet_country": "Qatar",
      "date": "2026-10-16",
      "url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/16/as-war-rages-myanmars-coup-leader-turned-president-wins-back-neighbours"
    },
    {
      "outlet": "DVB",
      "outlet_country": "Myanmar",
      "date": "2026-11-04",
      "url": "https://english.dvb.no/thailand-warns-myanmar-military-to-exercise-caution-us-strategy-links-peace-talks-with-rare-earth-access/"
    },
    {
      "outlet": "Myanmar Now",
      "outlet_country": "Myanmar",
      "date": "2026-11-10",
      "url": "https://myanmar-now.org/en/news/myanmar-military-airstrikes-on-schools-in-sagaing-kill-11/"
    },
    {
      "outlet": "Burma News International (Development Media Group)",
      "outlet_country": "Myanmar",
      "date": "2026-10-28",
      "url": "https://www.bnionline.net/en/news/arakan-army-strikes-3-myanmar-junta-warships-near-sittwe-sinking-2-sources-say"
    }
  ],
  "updated": "2026-11-11",
  "page": "https://verorbis.com/e/myanmar-civil-war/",
  "interactive": "https://verorbis.com/#e-myanmar-civil-war",
  "license": {
    "text": "Summaries and curation: CC BY 4.0. Cite \"Verorbis\" and link to https://verorbis.com/e/myanmar-civil-war/.",
    "third_party": "Numbers from third parties keep their own licenses and credit lines.",
    "credits": [
      "UCDP Candidate Events Dataset (CC BY 4.0), Uppsala Conflict Data Program",
      "UNHCR Refugee Population Statistics Database (CC BY 4.0)",
      "World Bank World Development Indicators (CC BY 4.0)",
      "V-Dem via Our World in Data (CC BY-SA 4.0)",
      "Harvard Growth Lab, Atlas of Economic Complexity (CC0)",
      "GDELT Project",
      "U.S. Energy Information Administration and Federal Reserve, via FRED",
      "European Central Bank reference rates; US Treasury daily par yield curve; Federal Reserve Bank of New York (EFFR)"
    ]
  }
}