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Conflict Russia · Ukraine

Russia-Ukraine war

Active war; Abu Dhabi talks end with a prisoner-swap deal but no peace breakthrough

Confidence: medium. The Komyshuvakha toll is still changing (43 on Nov 5; 50 from Ukraine's Emergency Service and 53 from the acting regional governor on Nov 6; Zelensky said in remarks reported Nov 4 that the attack may have killed 70), and Russia says it hit military units; positions before the talks come mainly from officials and state media. · Updated 11 Nov 2026, 2pm ET

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Why it matters: The war is the deadliest in Europe since World War II, Russia holds roughly 20 percent of Ukraine, and the US says a settlement should come with a new security framework for Europe. source

What's happening

Nearly five years into Russia's full-scale invasion, fighting and long-range strikes continue, and no general ceasefire is in force. Russia is pressing its campaign against Ukraine's energy system: Zelensky said on Nov 5 that Russian strikes have damaged every power plant in Ukraine, and Kyiv has had rolling blackouts. Ukraine keeps striking Russian oil refineries, and Zelensky told Fox News it will continue unless the US delivers Patriot missiles to protect Ukraine's energy infrastructure.

The toll from the Nov 2 Russian bombing of an aid distribution point in Komyshuvakha, Zaporizhzhia region, reached 53 on Nov 6, according to the acting regional governor; Russia's Defense Ministry says it targeted Ukrainian military units. On the ground, ISW assessed that Russia ended October with a small net loss of territory for the second straight month, while Russia's top general claims large gains; the two accounts are far apart.

US-mediated Russia-Ukraine talks in Abu Dhabi on Nov 10-11 remain on schedule. TASS reported that the head of Zelensky's office will lead Kyiv's delegation, and quoted an official as saying he does not expect a significant breakthrough; the Kremlin has said Putin aide Vladimir Medinsky will lead Russia's team. Trump has predicted a 'big, beautiful agreement' that 'might involve all of Europe'; the EU says 'a lot of work' is still needed, NATO says allies want a 'just and sustainable' end to the war, and the Kremlin says it has received no European proposals on security guarantees. The core disputes, above all Russia's demand for the rest of Donetsk region, remain unresolved.

The outcome matters beyond the two countries. European troops are preparing, in French- and British-led drills in Poland, for a possible post-ceasefire deployment to Ukraine; Democrats won both chambers of the US Congress on Nov 3, after Trump waived key new Russia sanctions in October; and Ukraine's central bank estimates that the port blockade will cost the country US$5.2 billion in export revenue in July-December 2026.

What changed recently

Key figures

about 30%Share of Russia's oil refining capacity knocked out by Ukrainian drone strikes since late OctoberTwo industry sources, cited by Reuters · 2026-11-10 · source
roughly 20%Share of Ukraine's territory occupied by Russia, including Crimea and parts of DonbasAl Jazeera · 2026-11-10 · source
1,000 to 1,500Prisoners per side in the exchange discussed at the Abu Dhabi talksPresident Zelensky, cited by Kyiv Post · 2026-11-10 · source
53Killed in the Nov 2 strike on an aid point in Komyshuvakha (Ukrainian count; Ukraine's Emergency Service gave 50 the same day, and Al Jazeera reported Ukrainian officials as saying up to 39 people remained trapped under rubble). Russia says it targeted Ukrainian military units.Acting governor of Zaporizhzhia region (Ukraine), via CBC; Ukrainska Pravda reports the same figure · 2026-11-06 · source
US$5.2bnExport revenue the National Bank of Ukraine estimates Ukraine will lose to the port blockade in July-December 2026 (agriculture US$4.6bn, ore US$0.6bn); losses are forecast to continue in 2027National Bank of Ukraine, via Ukrainska Pravda · 2026-11-06 · source

What experts say

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Sources