Of nine nationwide seat projections published from Oct 25 to Nov 5, eight give the PP the most seats, none gives it the 176 needed for a majority on its own, and one, by SW Demoscopia for La Séptima, puts the PSOE first with 126 seats to the PP's 117.
Claimed by: Catalan News Agency (ACN) roundup of published polls
Everything reported so far traces back to one source. Unverified. We'll update this page as reporting comes in, then say whether it held up.
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Who's reporting it
- Diari de Tarragona (ACN), 2026-11-07: Lists polls by SW Demoscopia, Sociométrica, Sigma Dos, NC Report, Hamalgama, Target Point and Ateneo del Dato; only SW Demoscopia (PSOE 126, PP 117) has the PSOE ahead, and no projection gives the PP more than 140 of the 176 seats needed. source
History
- 2026-11-10: Single source. These are polls, not results. The roundup lists PP projections from 117 to 140 seats and PSOE projections from below 99 to 126. A later Sondaxe poll for La Voz de Galicia (published Nov 8) gives vote shares only: PP 29.7%, PSOE 27.3%, Vox 18.6%.